02072nas a2200253   4500000000100000008004100001260001200042653001300054653001700067653001200084653002200096653002500118100001500143700001400158700001800172700001600190700001300206700001200219245016400231856008100395490000700476520132100483022001401804       2021                            d  c01/202110aCovid-1910aEpidemiology10aleprosy10aNeglected disease10atime series analysis1 ada Cunha V1 aBotelho G1 ade Oliveira A1 aMonteiro LD1 aFranco D1 aSilva R00aApplication of the ARIMA Model to Predict Under-Reporting of New Cases of Hansen's Disease during the COVID-19 Pandemic in a Municipality of the Amazon Region.  uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8744825/pdf/ijerph-19-00415.pdf0 v193 a<p>This work aimed to apply the ARIMA model to predict the under-reporting of new Hansen's disease cases during the COVID-19 pandemic in Palmas, Tocantins, Brazil. This is an ecological time series study of Hansen's disease indicators in the city of Palmas between 2001 and 2020 using the autoregressive integrated moving averages method. Data from the Notifiable Injuries Information System and population estimates from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics were collected. A total of 7035 new reported cases of Hansen's disease were analyzed. The ARIMA model (4,0,3) presented the lowest values for the two tested information criteria and was the one that best fit the data, as AIC = 431.30 and BIC = 462.28, using a statistical significance level of 0.05 and showing the differences between the predicted values and those recorded in the notifications, indicating a large number of under-reporting of Hansen's disease new cases during the period from April to December 2020. The ARIMA model reported that 177% of new cases of Hansen's disease were not reported in Palmas during the period of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This study shows the need for the municipal control program to undertake immediate actions in terms of actively searching for cases and reducing their hidden prevalence.</p>
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