OBJECTIVES: To explore the relationship between leprosy incidence trends and the future prevalence of World Health Organization (WHO) grade 2 impairment caused by leprosy.
METHODS: Three scenarios were defined to estimate incidences and prevalences of leprosy impairment beyond 2000, assuming 6%, 12% and 18% annual declines in case detection rate respectively, and 6% impairment among new patients. Case detection data from 1985 to 2000 were used for projecting leprosy incidences up to 2020. To estimate future prevalences of WHO grade 2 impairment, the survival of existing and new impaired individuals was calculated.
RESULTS: In the 6% scenario, 410 000 new patients will be detected in 2010 and 250 000 in 2020. The number of people living with WHO grade 2 impairment in these years will be 1.3 and 1.1 million, respectively. The 12% scenario predicts that 210 000 new patients will be detected in 2010 and 70 000 in 2020. The grade 2 prevalences will be 1.2 and 0.9 million, respectively. In the 18% scenario, the incidence will be 110 000 in 2010 and 20 000 in 2020, and the grade 2 prevalences will be 1.1 and 0.8 million, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS: Declines in numbers of people living with grade 2 impairment lag behind trends in leprosy incidence. The prevalence of people with grade 2 decreases much slower than leprosy incidence and case detection in all three scenarios. This implies that a substantial number of people will live with impairment and will need support, training in self-care and other prevention of disability interventions in the next decades.
BT - Tropical medicine & international health : TM & IH C1 - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18304271?dopt=Abstract CN - MEIMA 2008 DA - 2008 Feb DO - 10.1111/j.1365-3156.2007.01996.x IS - 2 J2 - Trop. Med. Int. Health LA - eng N2 -OBJECTIVES: To explore the relationship between leprosy incidence trends and the future prevalence of World Health Organization (WHO) grade 2 impairment caused by leprosy.
METHODS: Three scenarios were defined to estimate incidences and prevalences of leprosy impairment beyond 2000, assuming 6%, 12% and 18% annual declines in case detection rate respectively, and 6% impairment among new patients. Case detection data from 1985 to 2000 were used for projecting leprosy incidences up to 2020. To estimate future prevalences of WHO grade 2 impairment, the survival of existing and new impaired individuals was calculated.
RESULTS: In the 6% scenario, 410 000 new patients will be detected in 2010 and 250 000 in 2020. The number of people living with WHO grade 2 impairment in these years will be 1.3 and 1.1 million, respectively. The 12% scenario predicts that 210 000 new patients will be detected in 2010 and 70 000 in 2020. The grade 2 prevalences will be 1.2 and 0.9 million, respectively. In the 18% scenario, the incidence will be 110 000 in 2010 and 20 000 in 2020, and the grade 2 prevalences will be 1.1 and 0.8 million, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS: Declines in numbers of people living with grade 2 impairment lag behind trends in leprosy incidence. The prevalence of people with grade 2 decreases much slower than leprosy incidence and case detection in all three scenarios. This implies that a substantial number of people will live with impairment and will need support, training in self-care and other prevention of disability interventions in the next decades.
PY - 2008 SP - 241 EP - 6 T2 - Tropical medicine & international health : TM & IH TI - Future prevalence of WHO grade 2 impairment in relation to incidence trends in leprosy: an exploration. UR - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-3156.2007.01996.x/pdf VL - 13 SN - 1365-3156 ER -