As programs move closer towards the World Health Organization (WHO) goals of reduction in morbidity, elimination as a public health problem or elimination of transmission, countries will be faced with planning the next stages of surveillance and control in low prevalence settings. Mathematical models of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) will need to go beyond predicting the effect of different treatment programs on these goals and on to predicting whether the gains can be sustained. One of the most important challenges will be identifying the policy goal and the right constraints on interventions and surveillance over the long term, as a single policy option will not achieve all aims - for example minimising morbidity and minimising costs cannot both be achieved. As NTDs move towards 2030 and beyond, more nuanced intervention choices will be informed by quantitative analyses which are adapted to national context.
BT - Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America C1 - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33905477 DA - 04/2021 DO - 10.1093/cid/ciab188 J2 - Clin Infect Dis LA - eng N2 -As programs move closer towards the World Health Organization (WHO) goals of reduction in morbidity, elimination as a public health problem or elimination of transmission, countries will be faced with planning the next stages of surveillance and control in low prevalence settings. Mathematical models of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) will need to go beyond predicting the effect of different treatment programs on these goals and on to predicting whether the gains can be sustained. One of the most important challenges will be identifying the policy goal and the right constraints on interventions and surveillance over the long term, as a single policy option will not achieve all aims - for example minimising morbidity and minimising costs cannot both be achieved. As NTDs move towards 2030 and beyond, more nuanced intervention choices will be informed by quantitative analyses which are adapted to national context.
PY - 2021 T2 - Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America TI - What can modelling tell us about sustainable end points for neglected tropical disease? UR - https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article-pdf/doi/10.1093/cid/ciab188/37432839/ciab188.pdf SN - 1537-6591 ER -