Background: Great progress is being made toward the goal of elimination as a public health problem for neglected tropical diseases such as leprosy, human African trypanosomiasis, Buruli ulcer, and visceral leishmaniasis, which relies on intensified disease management and case finding. However, strategies for maintaining this goal are still under discussion. Passive surveillance is a core pillar of a long-term, sustainable surveillance program.
Methods: We use a generic model of disease transmission with slow epidemic growth rates and cases detected through severe symptoms and passive detection to evaluate under what circumstances passive detection alone can keep transmission under control.
Results: Reducing the period of infectiousness due to decreasing time to treatment has a small effect on reducing transmission. Therefore, to prevent resurgence, passive surveillance needs to be very efficient. For some diseases, the treatment time and level of passive detection needed to prevent resurgence is unlikely to be obtainable.
Conclusions: The success of a passive surveillance program crucially depends on what proportion of cases are detected, how much of their infectious period is reduced, and the underlying reproduction number of the disease. Modeling suggests that relying on passive detection alone is unlikely to be enough to maintain elimination goals.
BT - Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America C1 -https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/38662695
DA - 04/2024 DO - 10.1093/cid/ciae097 IS - Supplement_2 J2 - Clin Infect Dis LA - eng N2 -Background: Great progress is being made toward the goal of elimination as a public health problem for neglected tropical diseases such as leprosy, human African trypanosomiasis, Buruli ulcer, and visceral leishmaniasis, which relies on intensified disease management and case finding. However, strategies for maintaining this goal are still under discussion. Passive surveillance is a core pillar of a long-term, sustainable surveillance program.
Methods: We use a generic model of disease transmission with slow epidemic growth rates and cases detected through severe symptoms and passive detection to evaluate under what circumstances passive detection alone can keep transmission under control.
Results: Reducing the period of infectiousness due to decreasing time to treatment has a small effect on reducing transmission. Therefore, to prevent resurgence, passive surveillance needs to be very efficient. For some diseases, the treatment time and level of passive detection needed to prevent resurgence is unlikely to be obtainable.
Conclusions: The success of a passive surveillance program crucially depends on what proportion of cases are detected, how much of their infectious period is reduced, and the underlying reproduction number of the disease. Modeling suggests that relying on passive detection alone is unlikely to be enough to maintain elimination goals.
PY - 2024 SP - S169 EP - S174 T2 - Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America TI - Using Passive Surveillance to Maintain Elimination as a Public Health Problem for Neglected Tropical Diseases: A Model-Based Exploration. UR - https://academic.oup.com/cid/article-pdf/78/Supplement_2/S169/57334382/ciae097.pdf VL - 78 SN - 1537-6591 ER -